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November 06, 2009
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In an interview with the JoongAng Daily yesterday, Cha said while the ultimate goal of the six-party talks is denuclearization, “I think very few people really believe North Korea is going to give up its nuclear weapons.” “The formal endgame is denuclearization, but the informal endgame is essentially understanding that we’re really not going to get denuclearization under this [Kim Jong-il] regime,” said Cha, who teaches at Georgetown University. “We basically have to manage the [nuclear] problem until you get new leadership in North Korea and then we’ll see what happens.” Cha, who served as the Asian affairs director at the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, said North Korea hasn’t changed despite its recent charm offensive. After conducting nuclear and missile tests earlier this year, the North expressed a willingness to return to the six-party talks, depending on the progress at a possible U.S.-North Korea direct meeting. But Cha sees a repeat offender in North Korea. “I think [the recent series of moves] fits the pattern of past North Korean behavior. I don’t think it signals anything significant,” he said. “The reason they’re willing to come back to some sort of talks is because there’s really no other option. The [Lee Myung-bak] government is not going to give them things. The Obama administration is not interested in giving anything up front.” Cha said Obama has studied past negotiations very carefully. People no longer trust the boy who cried wolf, he said. “I think we’re now at a point where people realize that when the North suddenly has smile diplomacy, it’s not significant in a sense of being something new,” he said. “They don’t see a strategic decision [to denuclearize] coming out of North Korea. It’s just a tactical step to try to gain more concessions.” The United States is still mulling over bilateral talks with North Korea. But Cha said the Obama administration is not overeager. “I think [the administration officials] feel as though the United Nations sanctions are very useful, and are an important institution that they want to leave [on North Korea] as long as North Korea remains a nuclear weapons state,” he said. Cha said the sanctions will be effective in denying the North chances of proliferation and preventing financing of the weapons of mass destruction development, but added they will have their limits. “Are [the sanctions] squeezing the [North Korean] regime so much that they’ve changed their behavior? No,” he said. “These counterproliferation sanctions will never pressure North Korea to denuclearize.” Cha then called on North Korea to put something different on the negotiating table other than offering to disable nuclear facilities as it had done in the past. “If they want to negotiate, they have to think of something different,” Cha said. “It’s just very difficult between countries that are so distrustful of each other.” By Yoo Jee-ho [jeeho@joongang.co.kr] |
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