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May 26, 2009
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But analysts say Pyongyang’s sole focus is getting Washington to agree to direct dialogue when the Obama administration is still devising an official North Korean policy. “Preserving the regime is critical to the North Koreans,” said Yun Duk-min, a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. “Whatever goes on in the South is not really a factor in making a decision to conduct a nuclear test. There is no time for niceties.” Early Monday morning the state-run Korean Central News Agency quoted North Korean leader Kim Jong-il who conveyed his condolence to Roh’s family. The message came a day after North Korea had briefly mentioned Roh’s death. This news arrived alongside reports that the North had carried out a second nuclear test. South Korea is deeply imbued with Confucian values making it hard for even the staunchest Pyongyang supporters here to defend such an action at a time of mourning. Evidently, observers say, Pyongyang has shown its strongest cards and is hoping Washington will respond. “North Korea is directly calling on Washington to make a move. It has prepared for this for a long time and wants to cement its status as a nuclear power,” said Yun, pointing out that Pyongyang’s nuclear test was a prelude to any future negotiations and, inevitably, more aid. The intelligence community judged North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006 to be a failure. The nuclear yield was considered relatively small compared to other nations’ initial nuclear tests. To refine a nuclear weapon, a country has to conduct several tests, action that Pyongyang has hinted it would take. In April, North Korea threatened to conduct further nuclear tests in response to the UN’s condemnation of the North’s missile test earlier that month. It’s a dramatic development. Intelligence officials had believed North Korea possessed enough plutonium to produce six to eight nuclear weapons. If yesterday’s test proves a success, the number could jump. Not only that but until now, experts believed North Korea had not yet mastered the art of making nuclear warheads small enough to be put on a missile. A successful test could at least shorten the research needed to acquire that technology. Uncertainty surrounding the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, believed to have suffered a stroke last summer, may have also played a hand in Pyongyang’s decision to press ahead. Government officials believe North Korea has already jump started a grooming system to prepare for Kim’s eventual successor. Military leaders in the North have moved to the forefront and they have become increasingly vocal. “We think they are in transition and there is a need to maintain order. A nuclear test certainly does that,” said a foreign ministry official declining to be named. While Seoul has tried to revive inter-Korean talks, the outlook for any immediate fence-mending has all but vaporized. From the beginning, the conservative President Lee Myung-bak has made clear that any overtures to the North would be based on the premises of a denuclearized North. In the aftermath of its much advertised rocket launch last month Pyongyang received a slap on the wrist. Its long-time ally China and, to some extent, Russia refused to go along with further UN measures aimed at strengthening existing sanctions or calls for new ones. Nevertheless, considering China voted for a UN resolution imposing sanctions after the North’s first nuclear test despite advance warning, the likelihood of similar support is slim. A government official speaking on condition of anonymity said yesterday that Beijing was notified this time as well. By Brian Lee [africanu@joongang.co.kr] |
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